Search Results for 'Foresight'


7 POSTS

  1. 2009/08/18 All time favorite quotes on the 'Future' by dirby5
  2. 2009/02/11 Climbing up to 32th Floor by dirby5
  3. 2009/01/06 Predictions for 2009 by dirby5
  4. 2006/11/29 EFC by dirby5
  5. 2006/04/18 Arup's 'Drivers of change 2006' has been published by dirby5
  6. 2006/04/06 books stacked on the desk by dirby5
  7. 2006/04/05 Some about foresighting or futurology by dirby5
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VUCA World - 미래의 네 가지 속성과 기회 (#1)

  • Posted at 2009/09/29 08:54
  • Filed under Foresight

Palo Alto에 위치한 미래연구소인 IFTF의 전임 대표인
Bob Johansen이 2년 전 출간한 'Get there early'는
매우 흥미로운 사실과 함께 시작합니다.

흔히 가장 보수적이고 변화에 소극적인 조직으로 대표되는 곳 중 하나인
미국 육군에 설립된 예비 장성 육성을 위한 교육과정인 U.S. Army War College가
VUCA University라는 별칭으로 불리고 있다는 사실입니다.

VUCA는 위험과 기회의 양면의 속성을 지닌 세계(미래)를 특징 짓는 용어인데요,
"세상살기가 갈수록 어려워진다"는 우리네 푸념과 맥을 같이 하는 내용입니다.

갈수록 복잡해지는 세상을 올바르게 헤쳐나가기 위해서는,
우선 미래의 속성을 보다 잘 이해하는 것이 중요할 것입니다.
이런 관점에서 정리된 4가지 속성이 VUCA입니다.
  • Volatility - 급박하고 예측불가능한 변화의 양상
  • Uncertainty - 현재의 상황과 미래의 결과의 불확실성
  • Complexity - 의사 결정 시 고려해야 할 요인의 복잡도
  • Ambiguity - 특정 사건에 대한 판단의 모호함
만일
VUCA의 정도를 계량화 한다면(가칭 VUCA Index),
요즘과 같은 전지구적 경기 침체기에서
VUCA Index는 역사상 최고점에 위치하고 있지 않을까 상상해 봅니다.

미래를 정확히 예측한다는 것은 과거에도 그랬지만,
VUCA world에서는 더더욱 불가능에 가깝습니다.

따라서,
VUCA Index가 증가하면 할 수록
미래에 대한 고민과 준비의 중요성 또한 계속 커지게 되겠지요.

왜냐하면,
VUCA world에서는 Problem에서 Dilemma로 패러다임이 변화하기 때문입니다.

단선적인 미래에서
발생된/일어날 문제의 양상/진행 방향/파급효과에 대한 판단 및 대응은
상대적으로 손쉬웠습니다.

그러나,
VUCA Index가 상승할 수록
개인, 기업, 조직, 국가에게 놓여졌던 '해결 가능한 문제'들은
'해결 불가능한 딜레마'의 속성을 지니게 됩니다.

과거의 명제는 해결(Problem Solving)하면 결론 지을 수 있었지만,
현재/미래의 명제는 완전한 결론을 내릴 수 없고,
끊임없이 대응해야 하는(Dilemma Sensemaking) 과제라는 의미입니다.

이러한 VUCA World에서
장기적/종합적인 시각에 기반한 개인/조직의 미래관이 없다면,
하루하루 벌어지는 다양한 딜레마에 대한 제한적인 대응에 매몰되게게 되고,
결국 원하지 않는 미래와 조우하게 될 가능성이 높습니다.

세상은 이렇게 고민의 수준을 끌어올릴 것을 요구하고 있는데,
우리 사회의 다양한 영역에서 벌어지고 있는 일들을 바라보자면
눈이 절로 감기고 마는군요.

다음 편에서는
VUCA에 대응하기 위해 필요한 또 다른 VUCA에 대해 정리해 보겠습니다.


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2009/09/29 08:54 2009/09/29 08:54
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All time favorite quotes on the 'Future'

  • Posted at 2009/08/18 23:48
  • Filed under Foresight

미래는 인간 누구에게나 중요하고 필연적인 화두이며,
우리는 일상에서 미래에 관한 매우 다각적이고 중요한 고민을 하며 살아가게 됩니다.

과거를 미래를 위한 발전적 토양으로 활용하지 못하고,
단기적 이익에 사료잡혀
발전적인 미래 지향점을 찾지 못한 채 허우적 거리고 있는
2009년 우리사회의 자화상에 대한 깊은 우려와 함께,
하루하루를 조직에 매몰되며 나날이 게을러져가는 자신에 대한 채찍으로
Future, Foresight, Trend에 대한 블로깅을 본격적으로 시작해 보려 합니다.

제가 좋아하는 '미래'에 관한 세 개의 격언입니다.

첫번째는,
인간이 왜 미래적 동물일 수 밖에 없는지를 설명해주는
Abraham Lincoln의 연설문 중 일부입니다.

"우리가 현재 어디에 있고 어디로 향하고 있는지를 미리 알 수 있다면,
 앞으로 무엇을 어떻게 해야 할 지 보다 현명하게 판단할 수 있을 것이다."
“If we know could first know where we are and whither we are tending,
we could then better judge what to do and how to do it.”
- Abraham Lincoln (1858)

두번째는,
미래에 대한 상상의 출발점을 알려주는 SF소설가 William Gibson의 생각입니다.

"미래는 현재 우리 주위에 있다.
단지 균일하게 분포되지 않아 눈에 띄지 않을 뿐이다."
“The future is here.
 It’s just not evenly distributed yet”
- William Gibson

마지막으로,
미래를 준비하는 능동적인 자세에 관한 위대한 과학자 Alan Kay의 어록입니다.

"미래를 예측하는 가장 좋은 방법은 직접 원하는 미래를 창조하는 것이다."
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it”
- Alan Kay

어떤 느낌이신가요.
한편으론 매우 당연해 보이지만,
실행하기 쉽지 않아 보이는 것 또한 인지상정인 듯 합니다.

DJ의 영면을 기원하며...




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Posted by dirby5

2009/08/18 23:48 2009/08/18 23:48
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Climbing up to 32th Floor

  • Posted at 2009/02/11 14:40
  • Filed under Foresight
These days, I usually climb up to my office at 32F after lunch when I have available time(Now it takes 9-10 minutes, btw). It's my humble effort as an exercise for my health during weekdays. One day, I got a SMS somewhere around 20th floor and tried to look at the screen. All of a sudden I felt dizzy and almost fell down. So I looked upward as high as possible. Then it became normal after some seconds.

The dizzy feeling I experienced is just like what we feel about current economic downturn, crisis, or crash. We try to figure out how the market go tomorrow, how the real estate price move in three months, and whether the economy will rebound or not by the end of the year. We think about those things all the time, but we feel dizzy every time and fail to conclude in the end.

This is the nature of short-term future. It's almost impossible to tell about clearly and correctly. Long-term future is also difficult to forecast correctly, but at least we can talk about it more clearly with personal, organizational vision. And that's why we need to move our attention far into the future and into the peripherials, not looking only at our current boundaries. Then we need to grasp the clues that will shape our longer-term future and we should translate them into current context in order to make better decisions. This could be the only way that we can deal with today's dilemmatic world and of tomorrow.


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2009/02/11 14:40 2009/02/11 14:40
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Predictions for 2009

  • Posted at 2009/01/06 11:31
  • Filed under Foresight

2009년을 전망하는 다양한 예측 자료.

Here's 50+ predictions for 2009 in various categories. It's almost impossible to predict a long-term future. But it's also not easy to tell about a year later or so, especially when we are under a turbulent situation with ever-increasing woes and worries. Our socio-economic systems need to be fixed fundamentally along with the extreme makeover in our value systems.



50+ lists of digital predictions for 2009

2843731730_bb6f325081_m.jpgIt started out with a quick gander of eMarketer's list of 2009 predictions which has been bouncing round Twitter for the last day or so, then a chuckle with The Onion's list of predictions and then the madness descended. I should have learnt from last year's round-up, but alas no.

Below is the result in somewhat arbtitrary categories, a monster list of prediction lists. I'd love to pour all these lists into a clever tag tool and see what the key themes that drop out the other end, from a quick perusal, Twitter, Facebook, Cloud Computing, sensible business/get real/downturn/belt-tightening/good for digital and wild M&A speculation emerge.

Clearly, there's loads of predictions missing, so do let me know (email / Twitter) or add a comment if there's any that should be added.

List of 2009 Predictions

Bloggers
Design

Tech & Startups

Online Media, Marketing & Advertising

Affiliate, Search (PPC/SEO) & Email Marketing

Social Media

Mobile

Games, Music & Video

International

Video & Slide Predicitions

TrendsSpotting - Online Marketing 2009 Predictions
Social Media Influencers Predictions 2009 By Trendsspotting
View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: social media)
Rosalind Gardner - Affiliate Marketing Predictions for 2009


TrendsSpotting - Influencers on Social Media 2009 Predictions
Influencers On Online Marketing 2009 Predictions By Trendsspotting
View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: video 2009)

[Picture courtesy of law_keven]

By Sam Michel on Monday | 05/01/09 | 17:09
Topic:
Tags:Original link : http://www.chinwag.com/blogs/sam-michel/50-lists-digital-predictions-2009
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2009/01/06 11:31 2009/01/06 11:31
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EFC

  • Posted at 2006/11/29 17:11
  • Filed under Foresight
Last week I've been to European Futurist Conference 2006 which was held in Lucerne, Switzerland. The conference was very compact and well structured along with great speakers and attendees. The Keywords mainly discussed were 'open innovation' and 'web2.0'. Accordingly, Youtube,Google, and Flickr were the starring celebrities of the conference.

Among the speeches, I enjoyed the concept of those projects and the passionate speakers. Have a look.

- ecademy - A friend in every city !
- OSCAR - Open Source CAR !!! what a splendid idea !
- BBC open innovations BBC seems to know how to innovate

Link : Conference covering blog by Bluno Giussani.






















Image from the official conference website
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Posted by dirby5

2006/11/29 17:11 2006/11/29 17:11
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Arup's 'Drivers of change 2006' has been published

  • Posted at 2006/04/18 17:13
  • Filed under Foresight
Arup has published its result of key drivers of change.

I'm very interested in the format of this material for I have been considering of utilizing similar format in my research, which was actually inspired by IDEO's method cards.
IDEO Method Cards: 51 Ways to Inspire Design. - Keep people at the center of your work! Ask them how to help. Look at what they do. Learn from the facts you gather. Try it yourself! Ideo has become a leader in design by keeping people at the center of the design process. These cards show some of the methods we use to inspire great design. Each card describes one method and includes a brief story about how and when to use it. This is not a

Anyway this research has taken the 'STEEP' approach, which scans the key drivers of change in the following 5 categories(Social, Technology, Environment, Economic, Political).

They are opening the names of the drivers in each sector, so I'm just introducing them here.


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Posted by dirby5

2006/04/18 17:13 2006/04/18 17:13
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books stacked on the desk

  • Posted at 2006/04/06 14:21
  • Filed under Foresight

[jbookcover|0970710402]

[jbookcover|1591840899]

[jbookcover|1573223085]

[jbookcover|0374292884]

What a lazy boy !!!




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2006/04/06 14:21 2006/04/06 14:21
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Some about foresighting or futurology

  • Posted at 2006/04/05 16:03
  • Filed under Foresight
(version 0.7 , lastly updated on 5 Apr. 2006)

Fore-sighting is not about prophecy or fortune telling, but about stepping out of conventional thinking and narrowed-mind.

I'm not an expert in foresighting, but as a disciplinant I've come to fall in love with this area.

Here's some useful links for foresighting. Although this list contains general information on foresighting, I'm not intending to be exhaustive here. I'd say that it focuses on coreporate foresighting and technological foresighting.

Web resources
Books
  • [jbookcover|0385267320]  The Art of the Long View- Peter Schwarz
  • [jbookcover|0470023686]  Scenarios - the art of strategic conversations- Van Der Heijden


Institutes, Organizations, Schools


Information sources for Environmental Scanning



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